A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
